Covid death rates study

Death rates from Covid-19 could be between 50% and 80% higher in island and rural communities and remote small towns, according to a new study.

The St Andrew University analysis predicted a higher proportion of people could die with the virus in rural areas because of their more elderly populations.

Professor Hill Kulu said: “If the pandemic is to last long and the virus is to spread to all areas of the UK, remote small towns and rural communities are projected to have 50% to 80% higher death rates than the main cities because of their old population composition.

“Remote location may offer a protection from Covid-19 to some areas, but if the virus is to spread to these communities the effects will be devastating.”

Geographically, people at high risk and vulnerable communities are concentrated in large areas of the Highlands and islands, southern Scotland, south west England, coastal communities of east and south east England, much of Wales and northern England.

Co-author Peter Dorey said: “Within urban regions there are also pockets of high projected death rates. Overall, the areas with high and low fatality rates tend to cluster because of the high residential separation of different population age groups in the UK.”

The analysis also reveals that the Gaelic, Welsh and Cornish-speaking communities with relatively old populations are likely to experience heavy population losses if the virus spreads widely across the UK.

Covid-19 death rates could be 80% higher in rural communities, says study

24 April 2020